Egypt vs. IR Iran - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup match between Egypt and IR Iran kicks off tonight at 11:00 PM ET, with the on-chain contract for "More Markets" currently pricing a 16% implied probability for the "Yes" outcome on Polymarket. This conditional token, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, hinges on specific player statistics rather than the final result, reflecting a market that sees limited chance for the required goal or assist thresholds to be met.

Historically, similar player-prop markets in World Cup group stages have resolved "No" when the implied probability sits below 20%, as defensive structures in tight matches often suppress individual scoring bursts. In the 2022 tournament, Iran’s average goals per game in group play were 0.8, while Egypt’s attacking output in comparable fixtures rarely exceeded one goal per match, suggesting the 16% price aligns with past defensive trends where key players like Mehdi Taremi or Mohamed Hany fail to hit the 2-goal or 0.5-assist marks.

Traders should monitor the official match statistics published within 24 hours post-game, as Polymarket’s resolution rules require consensus reporting if governing bodies delay final scores. Recent pre-match analysis from DeFi Rate notes Iran’s low 10.3% probability to advance from Group G, implying a cautious tactical approach that may limit attacking risk. Any late lineup changes or in-game substitutions announced before kickoff could shift the probability, but the current market depth suggests smart money is taking profit into the whistle, expecting a low-scoring affair.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.