Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A friendly international football match between the Republic of Ireland and Qatar is scheduled for Thursday, 28 May 2026. The Polymarket contract currently trades at 100% implied probability for a YES resolution, meaning the market is pricing this fixture as certain to occur. Settlement closes at 18:45 UTC on that date, giving traders a narrow window after the final whistle to confirm the match took place.

International friendlies at this fixture level rarely face cancellation once scheduled within six months of the date. Historical precedent suggests that matches between established national associations proceed unless extraordinary circumstances—such as security threats, natural disasters, or diplomatic incidents—intervene. The 2026 FIFA World Cup cycle typically sees confederations honour friendly commitments to maintain competitive preparation schedules. Qatar's status as a recent World Cup host nation and Ireland's UEFA membership both indicate institutional stability around fixture scheduling.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the Football Association of Ireland and the Qatar Football Association for any squad or venue changes. Fixture confirmations typically receive formal confirmation 60 to 90 days before kick-off. Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East and any travel restrictions affecting European teams warrant attention, though such disruptions remain statistically uncommon for scheduled friendlies. Weather conditions in late May present no material risk to match completion in either jurisdiction. The 100% pricing reflects the baseline expectation that friendly fixtures between established nations proceed as scheduled absent exceptional circumstances.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.