What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder Sta…

Name: Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In
Start: 2026-07-24T23:43:33.000Z
End: 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5	100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5	100%
Map 2 Winner	91%
O/U 2.5 Games	84%
Match Winner	52%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	51%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)	50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5	50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-6.5) vs Heroic (+6.5)	50%
Map 1 Winner	0%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)	0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-6.5) vs Heroic (+6.5)	0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs Heroic (+3.5)	0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-9.5) vs Heroic (+9.5)	0%

Market context

The Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between NIP and Heroic in the StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In, initially scheduled for July 25 at 12:00PM ET. This marke…

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?: Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analystand

David ParkSports Data Analyst

Trade Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder Sta… on Kalshi UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder Sta… on Kalshi UK

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