Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi UK Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Kalshi UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Kalshi UK.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HEROIC Academy (-6.5) vs NEW VISION (+6.5) | 0% HEROIC Academy | 100% NEW VISION |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Match Winner | 100% HEROIC Academy | 0% NEW VISION |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 100% HEROIC Academy | 0% NEW VISION |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
Market context
HEROIC Academy face NEW VISION in a Counter-Strike best-of-three play-in match for the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Series #4, scheduled for 8 June at 1:00 PM ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices HEROIC Academy's victory at zero, reflecting either extreme confidence in NEW VISION or minimal liquidity in this particular fixture. Settlement occurs on-chain via USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens resolving to either team or splitting 50-50 if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days, or abandoned mid-series.
The 0% pricing warrants scrutiny given that HEROIC Academy operates as the academy roster of a Tier-1 Danish organisation with established infrastructure, whilst NEW VISION remains a comparatively lesser-known European squad. Academy sides in Counter-Strike often field developing talent but retain competitive advantages through organisational support and scrim access. Historical play-in matches in CCT Europe qualifiers have regularly produced upsets, particularly when academy rosters field experimental lineups or when fixture congestion affects preparation. The extreme probability suggests either a withdrawal announcement, roster changes, or simply that no traders have yet committed capital to this specific pairing.
Traders should monitor CCT Europe's official schedule and both organisations' social channels for any last-minute roster updates or cancellations, which would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Fixture timing relative to other regional tournaments—particularly any overlapping LAN events or league commitments—could affect team preparation depth. Recent CCT Europe announcements typically appear on their website and Discord community, where scheduling changes are posted with minimal advance notice.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Play-In on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?
- Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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