Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Astralis face TYLOO in a best-of-one Round 3 match at IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, scheduled for 7 June at 08:30 ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices Astralis victory at 62%, reflecting the Danish side's established standing within competitive Counter-Strike and their historical advantage against Chinese opposition. USDC settlement on Polygon occurs upon match completion, with the conditional token structure resolving to either team's favour or splitting 50-50 should the match be cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without resolution, or end in a tie.

Astralis's recent form provides context for the current pricing. The organisation has maintained top-four finishes across major tournaments throughout 2025 and 2026, whilst TYLOO has struggled to replicate their 2023 peak performances when they reached multiple international semi-finals. Head-to-head records favour Astralis decisively; their last three meetings across 2024 and early 2025 all resulted in Astralis wins, typically by comfortable margins. This historical disparity underpins the 62% probability rather than a closer split.

Traders should monitor IEM's official schedule for any format changes or delays affecting Stage 2 progression. Roster confirmations matter—both teams occasionally field stand-in players at majors, which could shift match dynamics. Recent injury reports or visa complications affecting either squad would move the market materially. The settlement window closes at 18:30 UTC on 7 June, allowing approximately ten hours post-scheduled start time for match completion before the 50-50 resolution clause activates.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.