ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Sri Lanka and Ireland Women are set to face off in Match 20 of the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2026 at Bristol County Ground, with the match scheduled to begin at 06:30 BST on 23 June 2026. On Polymarket, this contract is priced at a 100% YES probability, reflecting a near-certain outcome that one side will be declared the winner under standard playing conditions, including Super Over tiebreaks if needed. The on-chain mechanics use USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens determining settlement once the result is published by ESPNcricinfo.

Historically, 100% priced contracts in women’s T20 World Cup matches have resolved without dispute when no match was abandoned or forfeited. In the 2024 edition, Ireland narrowly lost to New Zealand by just four runs in a fiercely contested game, yet the result was accepted as final[6]. Similarly, Sri Lanka’s earlier campaign saw them lose heavily to England but still complete the match, confirming that even lopsided scores do not invalidate resolution[4]. These cases frame the current probability as a technical certainty rather than a prediction of dominance.

Traders should monitor the official toss announcement and any pre-match press updates from both squads, particularly regarding player fitness or weather delays. The ICC’s pre-match press conference for Sri Lanka was held on 22 June 2026, where coach Jamie Siddons addressed team readiness ahead of the clash[8]. With no major injury reports yet and clear skies forecast for Bristol, the path to settlement appears straightforward, and the 100% pricing remains aligned with on-field realities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.