The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs MI London

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **The Hundred women’s derby** between London Spirit and MI London at **0% YES**, so the current contract implies the crowd sees a win for the named side as effectively off the board. On Polymarket, that view sits inside a USDC-settled market on Polygon, with the conditional token resolving to **YES** only if the match result fits the market rules; ordinary wins, including results awarded by DLS/DRS, penalties, forfeits or walkovers, count as wins, and a tie only matters if the competition’s playing conditions supply an on-field tiebreak such as a Super Over.

The clearest comparable case is the sides’ meeting on 29 July, which finished **tied 151-151** at the Kia Oval, with the points shared after a last-ball finish. That matters because it shows these teams can be closely matched in this format, but it also shows how little room there is for a binary pre-match read when margins are thin and tie outcomes are possible under the conditions. MI London have also struggled for wins this season, while London Spirit have been more competitive overall, so a zero price is best read as either a strong market opinion that the contract’s settlement path is highly unlikely or a stale price detached from the live match state.

For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed team news, any last-minute pitch or weather update, and whether the competition has issued any alteration to the playing conditions or schedule before the 13 August settlement window closes. A late scratch, reduced-overs game, or administrative ruling can matter more than pre-match form because the contract resolves on the official outcome, not on who looked stronger on paper.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs MI London across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.