The Hundred: MI London vs Manchester Super Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **100% YES**, so the market is effectively treating Manchester Super Giants as the certain winner of the August 2 The Hundred fixture in London. On Polymarket, that means traders are buying and selling **USDC**-settled **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**, with the payout determined by the final result published by ESPNcricinfo rather than by in-play sentiment.

The fixture is the 18th match of The Hundred Men’s Competition 2026, staged at the **Kennington Oval** in London, with Manchester Super Giants having won the toss and choosing to bowl first[1]. Comparable pre-match previews leaned towards a tight contest rather than a runaway, with one model giving MI London roughly a 51% edge and another leaning slightly to Manchester at around 54–46, which is a useful reminder that pre-game probabilities in this format can move quickly on toss, conditions, and team news[4][12]. In that context, a contract already sitting at the top end of the pricing range is less a view on cricketing superiority than a statement that the market expects a standard official result to land cleanly.

For traders, the main catalysts are the things that can still change the settlement path: delayed start, abandonment, a shortened chase, or any official result after DLS-type adjustments, because the market rules treat on-field rulings, forfeits, and walkovers as ordinary wins[19]. Team sheets, late injury updates, and weather are the practical watchpoints; forecasts around the Oval were calling for dry, warm conditions with little wind, which reduces the chance of a washout and supports a completed match[12]. The key dependency is still the published final scoreline on ESPNcricinfo, which is what the market resolves against[19].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews The Hundred: MI London vs Manchester Super Giants across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.