Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Noah FA O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Noah FA O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Noah FA 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Noah FA 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| Noah FA (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău (-1.5) | 0% |
| Noah FA (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Noah FA O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Noah FA 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Noah FA 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Zimbru Chişinău 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket prices this Noah v FC Zimbru Chişinău contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively assigning no value to the specified “More Markets” outcome on the current book. The event is the UEFA Europa Conference League tie between Noah and Zimbru, settled on the match at Abovyan City Stadium, with the market using USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens to resolve to YES or NO once the result is final.
That zero bid sits against a first-leg pattern that has already been low-scoring and tight: BBC and Sky both record a 1-1 draw in the earlier meeting, while sports data pages show each side scoring once and conceding once in the tie so far.[1][2][6][12] Comparable European qualifying markets often stay compressed when the aggregate scoreline is level and the margin between the clubs is small, because a single goal can flip several derivative outcomes, especially on totals, both-teams-to-score, and qualification-related side markets.
For traders, the key catalysts are team news, confirmed line-ups, and any shift in match timing or venue, since the fixture is listed with slightly different local kick-off references across data providers.[1][9][13][14] Recent match reports and live stat pages also suggest Noah and Zimbru came into the second leg with closely matched scoring output in the tie, so any late confirmation of attackers, rotation, or defensive absences would matter more than broad season form.[2][6][12]
Methodology
This page reviews Noah FA vs. FC Zimbru Chişinău - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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