Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Auda O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Auda 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Auda (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City (-1.5) | 0% |
| FK Auda (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Auda O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Auda O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Auda 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Auda 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Auda 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Dinamo City 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this **More markets** contract at **0% YES** right now, so on-chain traders are treating any additional market on FK Auda v FC Dinamo City as not yet confirmed rather than as a live event in its own right. Because settlement runs through the match window on Polygon in USDC-backed conditional tokens, the key question is whether Polymarket adds or recognises extra market terms before the fixture kicks off in Riga.
The football context itself is not especially rich, which helps explain the cautious pricing. BBC Sport’s live stats page shows Auda and Dinamo City are close on basic output so far this season, with Auda on 7 goals scored and 3 conceded, and Dinamo City on 8 scored and 3 conceded[1]. UEFA’s match statistics page confirms the fixture is on the Conference League calendar, but there is no obvious public signal yet that would force a new market definition by itself[2]. Comparable pre-match listings on other football data sites also suggest a narrow, low-scoring setup rather than a one-sided special-market setup[3][12].
A trader watching this contract would focus on Polymarket announcements, any late schedule changes, and whether the match page spawns extra sub-markets before the 16:00 UTC settlement cut-off. The practical catalyst is not team form alone, but whether the exchange’s market creation and resolution rules change after line-ups, venue confirmations, or competition updates; if nothing new appears on the platform before kick-off, a 0% YES price is consistent with no additional market being available to resolve.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade FK Auda vs. FC Dinamo City - More Markets on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →