Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | 78% |
| O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SE Palmeiras 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| SE Palmeiras (-2.5) | 22% |
| O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Coritiba FBC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Coritiba FBC against SE Palmeiras is listed on Polymarket as a Brazil Série A football contract, and today the market implies **0% YES**, meaning the on-chain price is effectively saying no trader is currently paying for the outcome in this “more markets” basket. On Polymarket, that pricing reflects shares traded in USDC on Polygon, with settlement determined by the contract’s conditional tokens when the match-related criteria are resolved. [2][10]
A 0% print is best read as a market that has not yet found a live bid, rather than as a statement about the football itself. Comparable pre-match football markets usually anchor to the underlying fixture context, with third-party odds for this game showing Palmeiras as the shorter-priced side and Coritiba as the outsider, which is consistent with a cautious, one-sided market profile. The match was scheduled for 22 July at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, and external listings treated it as a normal 90-minute result market with stoppage time included but extra time excluded. [4][5][1]
The main catalysts are operational rather than speculative: line-up news, any scheduling change, and whether the match and any “more markets” condition are officially completed on time. Traders should watch club and league announcements close to kick-off, because Polymarket settlement depends on the actual football event and the specific market wording, not just the scoreline in the abstract. If the fixture is delayed, abandoned, or otherwise altered, that can affect how conditional-token settlement is interpreted. [1][2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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