Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 59% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Game Spread +/-5.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 36.5 | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 40.5 | 44% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 38.5 | 41% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 37% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 3 Winner | 36% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 Winner | 35% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 Winner | 34% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 23% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 61% probability to us open atp: dane sweeny vs corentin moutet. This market refers to the tennis match between Dane Sweeny and Corentin Moutet in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dane Sweeny' if…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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