Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of estoril open: roman andres burruchaga vs alexander blockx. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Roman Andres Burruchaga and Alexander Blockx in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market w…
Methodology
We track Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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