Türkiye vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Türkiye vs Paraguay - Exact Score** at **8% YES** on USDC collateralised conditional tokens on Polygon, which implies the market sees the exact-result contract as a low-probability outcome even though the underlying World Cup match is live and due to settle on the final score after regulation and stoppage time only. For a user holding the position on-chain, that means the key question is not who wins, but whether the finished score lands on one of the listed exact combinations rather than the broad residual “Any Other Score” bucket.

That 8% read looks consistent with how exact-score markets usually behave in football: even when the win/draw prices are relatively balanced, the probability is fragmented across many plausible scorelines, so a single scoreline rarely carries a high standalone price. The live match odds on ESPN have Türkiye around +105, Paraguay around +285 and the draw around +245, with a 2.5-goal total nearby, which signals a game that may produce several viable endings rather than one dominant scoreline.[2] Fox Sports similarly lists a 2.5 total, while Sky Sports shows the fixture at Levi’s Stadium with the score still 0-0, underscoring that the market is being traded against a live event rather than a settled pre-match script.[1][5]

The main catalysts for traders are straightforward: the score at full time, any late stoppage-time change, and whether the match is completed on schedule before the settlement window closes at 2026-06-20T03:00:00Z. FIFA’s match-centre entry confirms the fixture is part of the World Cup group stage in the San Francisco Bay Area, so the relevant dependency is the official match result rather than extra time or penalties, which the contract excludes.[7] Because the market resolves on the final regulation score, any late goal can flip an exact-score position into “Any Other Score” instantly, which is why Polymarket pricing on this kind of contract can move sharply on a single in-play event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.