Senegal vs. Iraq - Halftime Result

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Senegal and Iraq face off in a crucial FIFA World Cup Group I match on 26 June 2026 at Toronto Stadium, with the game kicking off at 3:00 PM ET. The prediction market for the halftime result currently prices a "YES" on Senegal winning at 0%, reflecting deep scepticism about their ability to secure a lead in the first 45 minutes. On Polymarket, this contract trades using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine settlement based strictly on the official halftime score, including stoppage time.

Historically, both teams have struggled to convert early pressure into goals in this tournament. Senegal lost 3-1 to France after missing a clear open chance at halftime, while Iraq suffered a 4-1 defeat to Norway without scoring a single goal in their first two matches[6]. Both sides sit at 0 points in Group I with identical losing records, suggesting a high probability of a draw or a goalless first half rather than a decisive home win[2].

Traders should monitor the official line-ups released shortly before kickoff and any in-game tactical shifts, particularly Senegal’s reliance on Ismaïla Sarr, who has previously missed critical chances at halftime[7]. The match’s outcome may also depend on stoppage time rulings, which are settled by FIFA’s official match centre[4]. With both teams having failed to score in their opening fixtures, the catalyst for a shift in probability will likely be an early defensive error or a surprise substitution altering the midfield balance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Senegal vs. Iraq - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.