Netherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this Netherlands–Sweden exact-score contract trading at **5% YES**, which implies the crowd sees one listed scoreline as a low-probability outcome on Polygon-settled conditional tokens funded in USDC. With exact-score markets, the price is usually driven less by who is likelier to win and more by whether the match lands on a very specific score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so even a broadly competitive game can still carry a small YES probability.

That pricing is consistent with how football exact-score markets usually behave: the most common outcomes tend to cluster around low totals, while a single bespoke scoreline remains a narrow slice of possible results. Bookmaking data on the same fixture points to a relatively tight game rather than a one-sided mismatch, with mainstream odds leaning towards the Netherlands and the total around 2.5 goals, which leaves exact scores fragmented across several plausible outcomes rather than concentrated in one. Head-to-head records also support a familiar pattern of mixed results rather than a dominant repeated score, with recent meetings including 2-0 and 1-1 outcomes.[1][3][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are the official line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the match plays to the expected tempo once kick-off arrives at Houston. FIFA’s match centre confirms the fixture, venue and 17:00 UTC start, while live odds feeds will typically move first if either side makes a conservative selection or if a striker/keeper absence changes the likely score distribution.[7][3] If the game is delayed or rescheduled, the market remains open until completion under the contract terms, so schedule changes matter as much as the football itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.