Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 98% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 71% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 22% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 1% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to germany vs. paraguay - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props on Kalshi UK
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