Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Germany vs Côte d’Ivoire at **4% YES** for the exact-score contract, so the market is currently assigning only a low single-digit chance to one of the explicitly listed scorelines landing at full time. On Polymarket, that exposure sits in USDC on Polygon and settles through conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters is the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties do not count.

That price is best read against the structure of football score distributions rather than the headline matchup alone. Germany is priced as the stronger side in adjacent match markets, with ESPN showing Germany around **-190** on the moneyline and Côte d’Ivoire at **+370**, while FOX Sports lists Germany at **-192** and a combined goals line of **2.5**.[2][1] Exact-score contracts usually become expensive only when the market sees a narrow set of outcomes as plausible, so a 4% implied probability suggests traders are spreading risk across many scorelines rather than concentrating on a single favourite result.

For a hands-on trader, the main catalysts are lineup news, any pre-match injury or rotation updates, and confirmation that the fixture remains on schedule in Toronto, where FIFA lists kick-off at 20:00 local time, matching the market’s settlement window of 20:00 UTC.[7] Because the contract resolves only on the completed regulation score, anything that shifts match tempo — early goals, weather, or tactical conservatism — can change the distribution between 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, and “Any Other Score” without changing the underlying teams involved.[7][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.