Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 35% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 34% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 30% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 88% probability to brazil vs. norway - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →