Jordan vs. Colombia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Jordan will face Colombia in a FIFA International Friendly on 7 June 2026. Polymarket currently prices YES at 2%, implying a Jordan victory is considered a 1-in-50 proposition. The contract settles on conditional tokens (USDC on Polygon) based on the final match result, with the settlement window closing at 23:00 UTC on match day.

Colombia's ranking and recent form establish the baseline for this pricing. The South American side typically occupies positions 12–20 in the FIFA rankings and qualified for the 2026 World Cup, whereas Jordan ranks considerably lower (around 90–100) and has not qualified for the tournament. Historical head-to-head records between these nations are sparse, but Colombia's consistent performance in CONMEBOL qualifiers and friendlies against similarly-ranked opponents suggests a substantial skill gap. When comparable underdogs (nations ranked 80+ points below their opponents) face top-40 sides in friendlies, victories occur in roughly 3–5% of cases, aligning with the current 2% probability.

Traders should monitor team sheets and squad announcements in late May, as Colombia may rotate players given their World Cup preparation schedule. The timing—just weeks before the tournament—could influence Colombia's intensity and selection strategy. Jordan's domestic league season typically concludes in May, potentially affecting player fitness. Fixture congestion for both nations' players in their respective club competitions through early June may also shift preparation quality. Any late withdrawals or injury announcements to key Colombian players would represent the primary catalyst for probability movement.

Methodology

We track Jordan vs. Colombia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.