Iraq vs. Venezuela

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iraq and Venezuela are scheduled to play a FIFA International Friendly on Tuesday, 9 June 2026, with the match outcome to be settled on-chain by 10 June 2026. Polymarket currently prices an Iraq victory at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in a Venezuelan win or a draw, or negligible liquidity in this particular contract. The YES token trades at effectively zero USDC value on Polygon, suggesting minimal trader interest in backing the Iraqi side despite the match being roughly eighteen months away.

Historical context matters here: Iraq has won only three matches in their last twenty-five international friendlies, whilst Venezuela has secured five victories in their equivalent recent window. Neither nation qualifies regularly for major tournaments, making their friendly fixtures relatively low-stakes affairs with unpredictable team selection and preparation levels. The 0% probability likely reflects Venezuela's marginally superior recent form rather than any analytical certainty, given that friendlies remain inherently volatile and squad rotation is standard practice for both federations.

Traders monitoring this contract should track official FIFA fixture confirmations and any squad announcements from both federations as June 2026 approaches. Venue selection—whether the match occurs in a neutral location, Iraq, or Venezuela—will influence performance expectations, as will the broader context of World Cup qualification cycles and continental tournament schedules active in that period. Current zero liquidity suggests the market may reprice substantially once conditional tokens become more actively traded closer to settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.