Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Crawley Town FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Crawley Town FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Crawley Town FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Crawley Town FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Crawley Town FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| York City FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| York City FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Crawley Town FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| York City FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| York City FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| York City FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Crawley Town FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| York City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Crawley Town FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| York City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| York City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Crawley Town FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
York City v Crawley Town in the EFL Cup is being priced on Polymarket as a **0% YES** contract, which means the market is effectively treating this “more markets” bucket as dead money in its current form rather than assigning any meaningful conditional value. Because Polymarket settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, the quote reflects what traders are willing to pay for a specific resolution path, not a view on the match itself.
That near-zero price sits against a fairly ordinary cup framing: the sides have split their recent comparable meetings, with head-to-head records showing one Crawley win, one York win and draws in the broader sample, while recent season form has been mixed rather than extreme. York’s late-season National League run was strong, including a sequence of wins and a draw at Rochdale, whereas Crawley finished their League Two campaign with a run of draws and a few defeats, which helps explain why comparable-case models do not point to a clear mismatch.[1][8][10][12][16]
For traders, the key catalysts are basic but time-sensitive: confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the match proceeds on the published schedule at York’s LNER Community Stadium, with Sky Sports and BBC live pages already tracking the fixture.[1][9][14] In an event-driven market like this, the main dependency is not abstract team quality but whether the specific “more markets” condition is actually triggered by the final match state and the market’s listed settlement rules on the cup tie.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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