Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

PARIVISION and Aurora will contest the DreamLeague Playoffs grand final in a best-of-five series on 24 May at 10:00 AM ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices PARIVISION's victory at 80 cents per share, implying roughly four-to-one odds in their favour. Settlement hinges on a completed match result; if play extends beyond seven days without resolution or the fixture is cancelled outright, the market collapses to 50-50 payout.

DreamLeague grand finals have historically favoured higher-seeded or regionally dominant teams, though upsets remain common in Dota 2's volatile competitive landscape. Aurora's presence in the final itself signals competitive parity—they've eliminated stronger-ranked opponents to reach this stage. The 80% confidence in PARIVISION reflects either superior recent form, head-to-head records, or roster stability relative to Aurora. Comparable Dota 2 playoff markets have seen similar probabilities shift materially within 48 hours of match day as injury reports, stand-in announcements, or patch changes surface.

Traders should monitor official DreamLeague communications for any schedule adjustments, technical delays, or roster changes through the settlement window. Recent esports disruptions—including visa complications and server issues—have occasionally forced rescheduling beyond the seven-day threshold. The match's timing at 10:00 AM ET places it outside peak European hours, potentially affecting viewership but not the underlying competitive outcome. Any announcement regarding player absences or format changes will likely shift the conditional token prices on Polygon before the 20:10 UTC deadline.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.