Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Aurora face Team Liquid in a DreamLeague Group A best-of-three match scheduled for 13 May 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. The 0% YES probability on Polymarket reflects Team Liquid's substantial competitive advantage in professional Dota 2. Team Liquid are a tier-one organisation with consistent International-level results and roster stability, whilst Aurora represent a lower-tier competitive standing. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding YES tokens receive full settlement value only if Aurora secure the series victory; any other outcome—Team Liquid win, match cancellation, or forfeiture—results in NO token payout.

Historical precedent suggests such extreme probability skews (0% YES) typically persist when one team holds a documented skill gap of multiple tiers. Team Liquid's recent tournament placements and roster consistency provide empirical grounding for the market's assessment. Similar matchups between established organisations and emerging squads in DreamLeague formats have rarely produced upsets at this probability level, though technical forfeits or schedule disruptions occasionally create settlement ambiguity.

Traders should monitor DreamLeague's official schedule for any postponements beyond the 7-day grace period, which would trigger 50-50 resolution. Roster changes or last-minute player unavailability announcements from either team could shift underlying match dynamics, though such news rarely moves markets priced at extremes. The tight settlement window—ending 13 May at 16:10 UTC—leaves minimal buffer for delayed matches, making schedule adherence a material consideration for position management.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.