Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Gentle Mates and magic are scheduled to face off in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the PGL Astana Group Stage on 13 May at 01:00 ET. The Polymarket contract currently reflects zero probability for a Gentle Mates victory, with conditional tokens trading at effectively nil value on Polygon. This pricing suggests the market views magic as overwhelming favourites, though the 0% reading may also reflect low liquidity or sparse trading activity rather than certainty of outcome.

Counter-Strike group stage matches at major tournaments frequently produce upsets, particularly when lesser-seeded or emerging rosters face established opposition. Gentle Mates' historical performance against comparable opponents and their recent form in qualifying rounds would provide context for whether the current pricing represents genuine skill disparity or market mispricing. Previous PGL events have seen teams ranked lower in pre-tournament assessments secure unexpected victories through superior preparation or tactical innovation.

Traders should monitor official PGL Astana scheduling confirmations, as matches in this tournament window have occasionally shifted due to technical issues or administrative delays. Any roster changes, player substitutions, or last-minute coaching announcements from either side could shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes 13 May at 11:00 ET, allowing seven days for match completion; delays beyond that trigger a 50-50 resolution. Current USDC liquidity depth on this contract should be verified before entering positions, given the apparent market indifference reflected in the zero probability quote.

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.