ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Scotland and Ireland will meet in the ICC Women's T20 World Cup on 13 June 2026. The match carries settlement risk tied to the ICC's final official result as published via ESPNcricinfo, with the resolution window closing on 20 June 2026 at 05:30 UTC. On Polymarket, this contract is currently priced at 100% YES across USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon, suggesting either a fixture certainty or extreme illiquidity in the underlying market depth.

Historically, women's T20 World Cup fixtures between associate nations have shown high completion rates; the last three ICC tournaments (2022, 2024) saw only two postponements across 55+ group-stage matches, both weather-related in tropical venues. Scotland and Ireland have played five T20 internationals since 2021, with Ireland winning three. The 100% price reflects the tournament's robust scheduling buffer—matches are typically rescheduled within 48 hours if weather forces abandonment—rather than genuine certainty of outcome. Comparable associate-nation pairings on Polymarket have traded between 45–65% for the underdog, suggesting significant mispricing if Scotland or Ireland are genuinely competitive.

Traders should monitor the ICC's official fixture confirmation (typically 4–6 weeks pre-tournament), squad announcements, and any venue changes that might affect ground conditions. Recent reporting from ESPNcricinfo (May 2024) indicated the 2026 World Cup will be held in South Asia with matches spread across multiple grounds; tropical conditions increase weather risk. Injury updates to key players—particularly Ireland's batting core—will emerge during the tournament build-up. The settlement window's 7-day grace period accounts for potential rain-affected replays or Super Over tiebreaks, which carry independent resolution mechanics under ICC playing conditions.

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.