Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Lucknow Super Giants v Chennai Super Kings is priced on Polymarket at an extreme 96% YES, so the market is treating a CSK win as the base case rather than a balanced contest. Because the contract settles off the final result reported by ESPNcricinfo and is backed by USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, the key issue for holders is not broad IPL form but whether the official result is recorded as a CSK victory under the match conditions. In practical terms, a 96% line leaves very little room for normal pre-match uncertainty; most of the value is concentrated in whether the game is completed and officially adjudicated in the expected way.

That pricing sits against a recent head-to-head that has favoured CSK enough to support the market’s lean. ESPNcricinfo reported CSK beating LSG by five wickets in the 53rd match of the 2026 season, and summary head-to-head pages show the fixture has been relatively even over time, with CSK and LSG splitting wins across their meetings and one no-result. For traders, that matters because a near-certain price can still move sharply if team news, venue changes, weather, or selection decisions alter the match-up. The main catalysts before settlement are the final XI announcements, any toss-related updates, and whether the match proceeds without interruption; DLS or other official on-field rulings still count as ordinary wins under the contract terms.

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Methodology

We track Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.