Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Virtus O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Virtus 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Virtus (-1.5) | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori (-1.5) | 0% |
| AC Virtus (-2.5) | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
AC Virtus face SK Dila Gori in a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifier on 16 July, with the match already concluded as SK Dila Gori secured a decisive 3–1 victory [4]. The prediction market “More Markets” currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, reflecting the on-chain reality that the event has passed and the result is settled. On Polymarket, this contract resolves via conditional tokens on Polygon, using USDC for settlement, meaning no further price movement is possible once the official result is confirmed by the UEFA match report [2][3].
Historically, similar “more markets” contracts for completed UEFA qualifiers have resolved within hours of the final whistle, with 0% YES prices appearing immediately when the underlying outcome contradicts the YES condition. In past Conference League matches where the home side won by multiple goals, conditional token markets on Polygon showed identical 0% pricing for away-win or draw-dependent clauses, confirming that the market is correctly aligned with the settled result [4][5].
Traders should monitor the official UEFA match report for any post-match adjustments, though such changes are rare once the final score is published. The settlement window ending 16 July at 19:00 UTC is now moot, as the game finished earlier that day. No new announcements or schedule dependencies remain, given the match’s completion and the confirmed 3–1 result [3][7].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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