Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 25.5 | 92% |
| O/U 27.5 | 91% |
| O/U 31.5 | 87% |
| O/U 29.5 | 86% |
| O/U 33.5 | 84% |
| O/U 35.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| O/U 37.5 | 67% |
| O/U 39.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| Hawai'i vs. Wyoming | 57% |
| Spread -0.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Wyoming O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| O/U 45.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Hawai'i O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 47.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 49.5 | 35% |
| Hawai'i O/U 27.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| O/U 51.5 | 30% |
| Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| O/U 53.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Hawai'i O/U 30.5 | 25% |
| Spread -11.5 | 24% |
| Wyoming O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Spread -12.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| O/U 55.5 | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| O/U 61.5 | 10% |
| Spread -18.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| O/U 63.5 | 9% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
Market context
Market consensus: 92% chance of hawai'i vs. wyoming. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Hawai'i and Wyoming, scheduled for September 26 at 3:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Hawai'i" if Hawai'i win the game. This mark…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $190K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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