SC Recife vs. Botafogo FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Sport Recife faced Botafogo-SP in Brazil’s Serie B on Friday, 10 July 2026, at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, with the match now concluded. On Polymarket, the YES contract for this event trades at 0% implied probability, reflecting that the outcome has already settled and no further price movement is possible. The market uses USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens lock payouts based on the official result once the settlement window closes.

Historically, Sport Recife dominates this fixture: in their last six meetings, they won four times, Botafogo-SP won none, and two ended in draws, with Recife scoring 13 goals against Botafogo’s three [3]. A 3–0 victory for Recife in their most recent encounter further underscores the imbalance, making a 0% YES probability consistent with the established head-to-head record rather than an anomaly [3].

Traders should note that with the match already played, the only remaining catalyst is the official result confirmation by the settlement oracle. No new announcements, squad updates, or schedule changes will affect this contract. The outcome is fixed, and the 0% price simply confirms the market’s alignment with the final score, which has already been recorded across major sports data platforms [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track SC Recife vs. Botafogo FC across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.