Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| EC Bahia O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| EC Bahia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| EC Bahia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| EC Bahia O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 0.5 | 12% |
| Both Teams to Score | 9% |
| EC Bahia O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| EC Bahia (-1.5) | 7% |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) | 6% |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| EC Bahia (-2.5) | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| EC Bahia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| EC Bahia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 51% probability to ec bahia vs. cr vasco da gama - more markets. More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for August 9 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade EC Bahia vs. CR Vasco da Gama - More Markets on Kalshi UK
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