Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Ducks and Shanghai Sharks are scheduled to meet in the CBA on 22 May, and Polymarket is pricing the contract at 0% YES for Beijing Ducks, with no market support for a Beijing win at the current snapshot. On Polymarket, buyers and sellers are still trading USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the listed price is the live market’s view of who resolves to the contract’s winner, not a fixed forecast of the fixture itself.

The recent head-to-head profile does not favour Beijing. Shanghai have won four of the last five meetings shown in the available results, including 81-66 on 20 May, 99-88 on 17 May and 88-83 on 12 April, with Beijing’s lone win in that run coming 87-82 on 15 May. Earlier in the season, Shanghai also won 86-67 on 20 January. That pattern matters because playoff matchups can be volatile, but repeated wins in a short series usually keep the market anchored unless team news changes materially.

For traders, the main catalyst is whether the game goes ahead on the scheduled date and under the listed playoff format, since postponement keeps the market open and a cancellation with no make-up would push it to 50-50. Any late team-sheet changes, venue or scheduling announcements, or official CBA updates could move the contract quickly. At the time of the available live listings, both SofaScore and Flashscore still had the fixture on the board, which suggests the key watch is completion rather than rescheduling.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.