Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Zverev–Collignon contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is treating an Alexander Zverev advance as highly unlikely in conditional-token terms on Polygon, settled in USDC. The underlying event is a men’s singles match at the Terra Wortmann Open in Halle, an ATP 500 grass-court tournament running from 15 to 21 June 2026, with the ATP schedule showing Zverev listed for Friday’s order of play in Halle.[2][6]

That zero bid needs to be read alongside how these sports contracts can resolve. If the match is never played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the market settles 50-50 rather than to either side; if it begins but is not completed, the outcome depends on the tournament’s official advance. For traders, the practical comparison is with other ATP grass events: late schedule shifts, retirements, and walkovers can matter more than pre-match seeding when the settlement rule is binary and date-bound.[3][4]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the published order of play, any official withdrawal or injury update, and whether Halle keeps the match on court within the settlement window ending 2026-06-26T11:00:00Z. ATP’s current daily schedule places Zverev on Friday’s programme in Halle, which reduces ambiguity unless there is a late change, while tournament and broadcaster schedules confirm the event is in its final days this week.[2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.