Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Felix Auger-Aliassime** at the full **100% YES**, so the contract is effectively being treated as a certain Auger-Aliassime advance on Polygon, settled through USDC and conditional tokens rather than a discretionary judgement call. The underlying event is the Halle Open match between Frances Tiafoe and Felix Auger-Aliassime, originally scheduled for 19 June 2026, and the market only resolves to Tiafoe if he advances; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days without a winner pushes the market to 50-50.[4][5]

The current read sits against a mixed-but-useful historical frame. Tennis.com listed Auger-Aliassime as the projected winner at roughly 60% before the match, while Flashscore noted that Auger-Aliassime led the head-to-head 3-0, which is the sort of prior record traders often use to anchor a live price.[2][3] That said, a 100% market price is far more extreme than either pre-match projection, so on a hands-on Polymarket view it reflects either very strong conviction around the result or a thin book where one side has been bid to the ceiling.

For traders, the key catalysts are the official match result, any late withdrawal, and tournament scheduling updates that could turn a live match into a no-contest or delay outcome under the market rules.[4][5] Recent Halle coverage from ATP showed both players progressing through the draw in the same event, which confirms the matchup context and means any further bracket changes, retirement news, or postponement would matter more than broader form.[6][8][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.