Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 22.5 | 99% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner | 95% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo | 67% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 7% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open: rafael jodar vs alejandro tabilo. This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Alejandro Tabilo in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafae…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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