Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, croatia open: flavio cobolli vs roman andres burruchaga stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
We track Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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