Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 100% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 0% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Sam Burns | 0% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Bud Cauley | 0% |
| Wyndham Clark | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% |
| Harris English | 0% |
| Steven Fisk | 0% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0% |
| Ryan Fox | 0% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% |
| Ben Griffin | 0% |
| Harry Hall | 0% |
| Brian Harman | 0% |
| Russell Henley | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% |
| Max Homa | 0% |
| Viktor Hovland | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% |
| Tom Kim | 0% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Min Woo Lee | 0% |
| Shane Lowry | 0% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Rory McIlroy | 0% |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% |
| Collin Morikawa | 0% |
| Alexander Noren | 0% |
| JT Poston | 0% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 0% |
| Aaron Rai | 0% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% |
| Justin Rose | 0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 0% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 0% |
| Matthias Schmid | 0% |
| Adam Scott | 0% |
| Alex Smalley | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Sepp Straka | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0% |
| Justin Thomas | 0% |
| Gary Woodland | 0% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0% |
| Cameron Young | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to pga tour: fedex st. jude championship first round leader. This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 1 of the main tournament at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, t…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Le… on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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