Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
48% | 52% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
48% | 52% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Taylor Pendrith | 48% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 46% |
| Blades Brown | 43% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 43% |
| Benjamin James | 42% |
| Rico Hoey | 41% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 38% |
| Beau Hossler | 37% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 37% |
| Kevin Yu | 35% |
| Max McGreevy | 34% |
| Zach Bauchou | 33% |
| Taylor Moore | 33% |
| Ugo Coussaud | 32% |
| Alejandro Del Rey | 31% |
| Austin Eckroat | 31% |
| Kevin Roy | 31% |
| Chan Kim | 28% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 28% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 28% |
| Jacob Skov Olesen | 27% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 27% |
| Garrick Higgo | 27% |
| A.J. Ewart | 25% |
| Chad Ramey | 25% |
| Thomas Rosenmuller | 25% |
| Lanto Griffin | 25% |
| Brice Garnett | 25% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 25% |
| Seamus Power | 24% |
| Vince Whaley | 24% |
| Joel Dahmen | 23% |
| Manuel Elvira | 22% |
| Carson Young | 21% |
| Luke Clanton | 21% |
| Romain Langasque | 21% |
| David Skinns | 21% |
| Alejandro Tosti | 20% |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 20% |
| Paul Waring | 20% |
| Hayden Springer | 20% |
| Jorge Campillo | 19% |
| Tom Vaillant | 19% |
| Todd Clements | 19% |
| Harry Higgs | 19% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 19% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 18% |
| Adam Hadwin | 18% |
| Maximilian Steinlechner | 18% |
| Benjamin Silverman | 17% |
| Adam Svensson | 17% |
| Ricardo Gouveia | 17% |
| Davis Bryant | 17% |
| Dylan Frittelli | 17% |
| Davis Chatfield | 16% |
| Christo Lamprecht | 16% |
| Dylan Wu | 15% |
| Tyler Duncan | 15% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 15% |
| Marcus Kinhult | 15% |
| Nicolai Von Dellingshausen | 15% |
| Trace Crowe | 14% |
| S.Y. Noh | 14% |
| Aaron Wise | 14% |
| Thriston Lawrence | 14% |
| Danny Willett | 14% |
| Brandon Stone | 14% |
| David Ravetto | 14% |
| Brandon Robinson-Thompson | 14% |
| Paul Peterson | 14% |
| Nick Hardy | 14% |
| Taylor Montgomery | 14% |
| Yuto Katsuragawa | 14% |
| Danny Walker | 14% |
| Cameron Champ | 13% |
| Kensei Hirata | 13% |
| Nick Dunlap | 13% |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 13% |
| Joel Girrbach | 13% |
| Jeffrey Kang | 13% |
| Frederik Schott | 12% |
| Sean Crocker | 12% |
| Fabian Gomez | 12% |
| Justin Lower | 12% |
| Henry Lebioda | 12% |
| Jens Dantorp | 12% |
| Nacho Elvira | 11% |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 11% |
| Ben Martin | 11% |
| John Vanderlaan | 11% |
| Marcel Schneider | 11% |
| Marcus Helligkilde | 11% |
| Peter Malnati | 11% |
| Luke List | 11% |
| Jeremy Paul | 9% |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 9% |
| Jonathan Byrd | 8% |
| Richie Ramsay | 7% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 1% |
| Mark Hubbard | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 48% YES probability for PGA Tour: Corales Puntacana Championship Top 20. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If fin…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade PGA Tour: Corales Puntacana Championship Top 20 on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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