SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test aborted at the final second on 16 July after four Raptor engines failed to ignite during startup, forcing a launch cancellation and a planned engine swap before the next attempt [5][6]. The market on Polymarket prices this contract at 0% YES today, reflecting the immediate abort and the absence of a confirmed liftoff for Flight 13 [1].

Historically, early Starship test flights have faced repeated last-second aborts and engine failures before achieving success; Flight 9 and Flight 11 both required multiple reattempts after similar pre-launch engine issues, with probabilities on prediction markets often collapsing to near-zero before a successful launch reset sentiment [8]. The current 0% price aligns with that pattern, treating the event as unresolved until SpaceX confirms a new launch window and clears the engine-replacement work.

Traders should watch for Musk’s next social-media update on the replacement timeline, FAA re-clearance after the engine swap, and the official launch-window announcement from SpaceX’s launches page [1][6]. The primary target remains early next week, with a backup window potentially opening by 20 July if inspections delay the rollback [4]. Confirmation of a new static-fire date or a revised launch schedule will be the key catalyst for any probability shift.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.