Solana above 2026 on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Solana's price at noon ET on 7 June 2026 will determine this market's outcome, with settlement hinging on the precise closing price of the 1-minute SOL/USDT candle on Binance at that specific moment. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to current valuations or minimal trading activity in this particular contract. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC collateral on Polygon, meaning positions require actual stablecoin backing rather than notional exposure—a structural feature that typically suppresses prices on low-liquidity or seemingly improbable outcomes.

Historical precedent suggests that single-candle, time-specific price targets for major cryptocurrencies rarely attract significant conviction betting. Solana's volatility profile—whilst notable among large-cap digital assets—doesn't typically produce the kind of intraday swings that would justify extreme strike prices at 0% probability unless the threshold is genuinely unattainable given current market conditions. The 18-month settlement window provides ample time for fundamental shifts in Solana's ecosystem, including network upgrades, validator participation changes, or broader cryptocurrency market repricing.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Solana's technical levels relative to the strike price and watch for announcements affecting network throughput or developer activity, as these influence medium-term price discovery. Binance's SOL/USDT pair remains the reference point, so exchange-specific liquidity conditions at noon ET on the settlement date will matter more than broader market sentiment. The conditional token structure means any position requires committing actual USDC, creating a natural filter against speculative entries on improbable outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.