Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Senegal and Iraq face off in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match at Toronto Stadium on 26 June 2026, with the game kicking off at 3:00 PM ET. The prediction market for an exact score currently trades at a 4% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, reflecting the rarity of any specific final scoreline in a competitive international fixture. On Polymarket, this contract is priced using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine settlement based on the official 90-minute result, excluding extra time and penalties.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group games rarely exceed 5–6% probability unless one team is heavily favoured or the match is expected to be low-scoring. Comparable cases from 2022 show that even in tight contests like Japan vs Spain, no single scoreline surpassed 7%, with most outcomes clustering around 1–0 or 2–1. Senegal’s strong defensive record—eight clean sheets in their last ten wins [2]—and Iraq’s lower FIFA ranking (57 vs 15) [2] suggest a potential low-scoring affair, yet the 4% figure remains consistent with typical variance in such matchups.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups, injury updates, and tactical announcements from both squads, particularly Iraq coach Graham Arnold’s recent comments on team preparation [8]. Any shift in starting formations or late withdrawals could alter scoring expectations. Additionally, weather conditions in Toronto and potential pitch quality at BMO Field may influence play dynamics. While no major news source has yet reported critical changes, real-time updates from FIFA’s match centre [7] and ESPN’s live coverage [1] will be essential for assessing catalysts before the settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 26 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.