IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 15 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% implied probability across the listed scorelines, with settlement conditional on the final whistle after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. On Polymarket, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon, splitting into conditional tokens for each discrete result; any scoreline outside the explicit options resolves to "Any Other Score," which currently captures the majority of probability mass.

Exact-score markets in World Cup football typically compress probability heavily into low-scoring outcomes. Historical precedent from 2022 and 2018 group-stage matches shows that 1–0, 0–0, and 1–1 results account for roughly 40–50% of all matches played. Iran's recent form includes a 3–0 loss to Senegal in March 2024 qualifiers and inconsistent attacking output; New Zealand qualified through the Oceania pathway and has limited experience against top-tier opposition. The 11% price reflects the rarity of any single scoreline materialising in a 90-minute fixture between two sides with divergent competitive levels.

Traders should monitor team news through early June, particularly injury status for Iran's key midfielders and New Zealand's defensive shape. FIFA's official fixture confirmation and any last-minute venue changes would trigger settlement mechanics. Historical weather data for the 2026 venue and recent friendly results from both squads in May will inform whether the match trends toward open play or defensive caution. The "Any Other Score" option remains the statistical favourite given the combinatorial spread of possible outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.