How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pinned at **96% YES** today, with traders paying USDC on Polygon for conditional tokens that settle only if USGS records at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher in the stated window. That price implies the market is treating a qualifying quake as the overwhelmingly likely outcome, not because the contract is abstractly about seismicity, but because one or more USGS-listed events can appear, be revised, and then determine settlement.

The historical frame is straightforward: earthquakes at or above 6.5 are not rare globally, and the USGS’s own 2026 M6+ listings already show several such events earlier in the year, including a 6.8 in Kyushu on 28 July, a 6.9 offshore Honshu on 24 June, and a 7.2 in Venezuela the same day.[8][9] The market therefore resembles a threshold bet on whether the week catches at least one sizeable global event rather than a view on the broader earthquake background. The 96% price leaves only a small tail for a zero-qualifier week, which is consistent with how frequently the USGS has been logging major shocks this year.[1][8]

For traders, the practical catalysts are USGS catalogue updates and any magnitude revisions that can move an event across the 6.5 line before the settlement cutoff. This market can also stay open after the period ends if a substantial quake has occurred but has not yet been reflected on the resolution source, so late catalogue changes matter more than headline news flow.[7] Secondary trackers can be useful for awareness, but resolution follows the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, and the contract’s final outcome depends on what appears there within the rules window.[7][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.