Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **1% YES**, so the crowd is treating Donald Trump leaving the presidency by 31 August 2026 as a very low-probability event. On Polymarket, traders fund positions in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with shares settling through the market’s conditional-token structure: if the event happens under the contract rules, **Yes** shares redeem at $1; otherwise they expire at zero.[1][14]

That low price fits the historical pattern for presidential exit markets, where the base case is continuity and the payoff only moves materially on an explicit resignation, removal, or other permanent loss of office. Similar markets on Trump’s departure have generally stayed in the low single digits unless there is a concrete procedural trigger, such as a public announcement, a verified health development, or a formal political process that could plausibly end in permanent removal.[2][4][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are **official announcements** from the White House, a scheduled press event, or a serious deterioration in Trump’s ability to serve; under the contract, a qualifying announcement can settle the market to Yes immediately even if the effective departure date is later.[1] News flow around the administration’s public schedule matters most, because short-lived rumours or temporary incapacity do not count under the rule set, and the market only resolves Yes for a permanent exit before the 31 August 2026 deadline.[1][2][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by August 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.