Highest grossing movie in 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 box office will crown a single highest-grossing film measured by its domestic calendar-year gross, with settlement determined by Box Office Mojo's final figures. Polymarket currently prices this binary contract at 1% YES, meaning traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty about which film will lead the year—a reflection of how far out the prediction window sits and how dependent the outcome is on release schedules not yet finalised.

Historical precedent shows that the highest-grossing film in any given year typically emerges from a cluster of major releases rather than a single runaway favourite. In 2024, Inside Out 2 dominated with over $645 million domestic; in 2023, Barbie led at $636 million. These winners often benefit from summer release windows and franchise recognition. The 1% probability suggests traders view 2026 as genuinely open, with no announced tentpole yet commanding confidence. This contrasts sharply with years where a Marvel or Disney release enters the calendar with near-certainty, indicating the current slate remains fragmented across studios.

Catalysts to monitor include major studio announcements through 2025 regarding release dates, particularly for Marvel, DC, and Disney tentpoles scheduled for summer 2026. Trade publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter regularly report on production timelines and greenlight decisions. Box office performance of 2025 releases will also signal which franchises studios prioritise for 2026 slots. The settlement mechanism ties directly to Box Office Mojo's published figures as of 31 December 2026, with a fallback resolution window extending to 7 January 2027, meaning data delays are unlikely to affect the outcome materially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.