Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Senate reconciliation bill at 0% yes, so a USDC position on Polygon via the contract’s conditional tokens is effectively being treated as a near-total no. That leaves very little room for late procedural movement, even though the formal settlement window still runs to 31 May. In practical terms, the market is asking whether the Senate can complete passage and clear the relevant legislative steps before the deadline, not whether the underlying immigration-funding package remains politically alive in general.

The recent comparator is the April budget resolution sequence, when the Senate passed S. Con. Res. 33 by 50-48 and the House later completed adoption by 215-211, unlocking reconciliation instructions for committees. CBO then scored the draft language as up to $72 billion in direct appropriations, with Senate Homeland Security and Judiciary recommendations estimated at $32.5 billion and $39.2 billion respectively. That history matters because reconciliation only advances after both chambers agree on the same budget framework and committee text is produced on time; a delay at any of those points is enough to keep a market like this pinned low.

For traders, the key catalysts are official floor notices, committee mark-ups, and any statement from leadership on timing. The House and Senate committees were instructed to submit reconciliation text by 15 May, and recent reporting from the National Association of Counties said Senate leadership was targeting final legislation by 1 June, while CBO assumed enactment in late spring 2026. If the Senate schedule slips, or if the House and Senate fail to align on the same package before month-end, the contract remains vulnerable to a No outcome despite periodic headlines around DHS and immigration funding.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.