Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hezbollah disarming by end-March 2026 currently trades at 0% implied probability on Polymarket, with the market priced entirely on the "No" side at 1.00 USDC per conditional token. This reflects the organisation's historical resistance to any formal disarmament, despite decades of international pressure and multiple UN resolutions calling for its military dissolution. The 0% pricing suggests traders assess the probability as negligible within the 15-month window, though the binary structure means even marginal conviction shifts could move conditional token prices sharply if sentiment changes.

Hezbollah has never announced disarmament despite significant pressure points: the 2006 war with Israel, the 2008 Cedar Revolution, the 2019-2020 Lebanese financial collapse, and ongoing international sanctions. The organisation rebranded itself as a political party in 1992 but maintained its armed wing as a core identity. Comparable cases—the IRA's decommissioning (2005) or the FARC's disarmament (2017)—took years of negotiation and involved face-saving compromises. Hezbollah's current strategic position in Lebanon's government and its role as a deterrent against Israel make unilateral disarmament politically untenable for the leadership.

Traders should monitor developments around Lebanon's political stability, any Israeli-Hezbollah escalation, and statements from Secretary-General Naim Qassem or his successor. The recent 2024 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, whilst reducing immediate military operations, contains no disarmament provisions. Any formal announcement would require extraordinary political circumstances—regime collapse, military defeat, or a comprehensive regional peace framework—none of which appear imminent by March 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.