Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Polymarket contract pricing this outcome at 10% YES reflects substantial scepticism that Trump will publicly insult a specific named individual between now and 31 May 2026. The settlement hinges on whether Trump makes a statement—via social media, rally speech, interview, or press appearance—that meets the criteria of personal or professional attack using insulting language, derogatory nicknames, or negative characterisations. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding YES tokens profit only if the named target receives such treatment within the settlement window.

Historical precedent suggests the 10% baseline underestimates Trump's rhetorical patterns. During his 2016 campaign and presidency, Trump publicly insulted dozens of named individuals—from "Low Energy Jeb" Bush to "Crooked Hillary" Clinton to "Sleepy Joe" Biden—with remarkable consistency across media channels. His post-presidency communications have maintained this cadence; recent statements about various political figures and media personalities demonstrate the behaviour remains frequent rather than exceptional. Markets pricing similar Trump-insult contracts during his first term typically resolved YES at substantially higher frequencies than 10%, suggesting current pricing may reflect either a narrower interpretation of the settlement criteria or reduced media coverage of his statements.

Traders should monitor Trump's public schedule closely: rally announcements, Truth Social activity, and television appearances represent the primary vectors for resolution-triggering statements. The 18-month window extends through the 2026 midterm cycle, a period historically associated with elevated political rhetoric. Any significant political development—congressional investigations, legal proceedings, or intra-party disputes—could increase the probability of public attacks on named figures. Recent reporting from outlets tracking Trump's statements indicates his frequency of public commentary has not diminished in 2025.

Methodology

This page reviews Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.