Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is still marked at 0% YES, so the market is effectively pricing no fresh Trump–Putin encounter before 30 June 2026. A 0% quote on a conditional token does not mean the event is impossible; it usually means there is no visible liquidity or no one is willing to pay up for a positive outcome on Polygon with USDC at current levels. The last clear precedent was the August 2025 Anchorage summit, when Trump and Putin met at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson and held a joint press briefing, showing that a meeting can be arranged quickly once both sides agree on venue, security and optics.

For traders, the main watchpoint is not abstract diplomacy but whether a concrete summit notice appears. Politico reported on 16 October 2025 that Trump said he would again meet Putin and that Budapest was under consideration, which is the sort of signal that can move this market sharply if followed by a date, location and travel plan. What matters next is whether the White House or Kremlin confirms a bilateral stop, whether there is any Ukraine-related ceasefire push that creates a face-to-face incentive, and whether the logistics can be completed inside the market window. On Polymarket, a verified in-person interaction at any listed location would settle the location contract; absent that, the market resolves to No meeting by 30 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.