Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the probability of Trump ceasing to be President by 30 June 2026 at 1%, with the contract trading on Polygon as conditional USDC tokens. The settlement window spans roughly 18 months from Trump's inauguration on 20 January 2025. The market requires permanent removal—resignation, conviction and removal via impeachment, or invocation of the 25th Amendment Section 4 (cabinet-led removal)—to resolve YES. An announced departure before the deadline triggers immediate settlement, regardless of the effective date.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US President has been removed via the 25th Amendment Section 4, though it was invoked temporarily during medical procedures under Reagan and Bush. Impeachment removal requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority; only Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton faced Senate trials, both acquitted. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 facing near-certain removal. The 1% price reflects the structural difficulty of removing a President with Senate Republican support, combined with Trump's stated intent to serve a full term.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Senate composition shifts, any serious health events, and developments in ongoing legal cases—though criminal conviction alone does not remove a sitting President. The House Judiciary Committee's activities and any formal impeachment proceedings would signal material risk. Recent reporting on Trump's health and stamina, alongside statements from senior Republican figures regarding party stability, provide early warning signals. The contract's illiquidity and extreme skew toward NO suggests limited conviction among traders that removal occurs within the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.